Boots – shoes – and leggings
Patent
1995-04-14
1998-04-07
Trammell, James P.
Boots, shoes, and leggings
367 38, G01V 100
Patent
active
057372195
DESCRIPTION:
BRIEF SUMMARY
This application is a 371 of PCT/DK93/00327 filed Oct. 15, 1993.
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a method of monitoring short-term deformation changes in a geological space and predicting seismic events, such as earthquakes and landslides, in a region, wherein the method includes the steps of: parameters, X, Y, Z . . . . in an aquifer in a number of locations throughout the area of the region using a corresponding number of observation wells; and for each parameter X, Y, Z . . . on the basis of the measuring values obtained and using the formulas ##EQU1## wherein X.sub.t=0, Y.sub.t=0, Z.sub.t=0 are the values of parameter X, Y, Z respectively at time t=0 (reference time), respectively at time t=t1; and on the basis of the calculated e-values and using the contour maps prepared to identify short living deformation structures of potential seismic danger.
Geological observations have shown that in the earth's crust volumetric deformation continuously gives rise to the formation and destruction of either compacted or expanded subsurface structures of increased tension or stress-strain (Vartanyan-Kulikov's effect). Such structures are usually formed and destroyed in a matter of days or months, and they are commonly referred to as short living structures of deformation.
Such short living structures may appear all over the globe and they may periodically cover an area of hundreds and sometimes thousands of square kilometers.
As mentioned above, short living structures of deformation are formed and destructed continuously, i.e., also during geodynamically quiet periods, and usually in a chaotic manner.
Spatial volumetric stress-strain state microvariations of the lithosphere developing in real time and registered through subsurface variations in hydrosphere parameters are commonly referred to as the hydrogeodeformation (HGD) field. The visualization of the HGD field development is based on the application of special equipment and procedures.
Methods and apparatus which allow a measurement of the relative deformation of subsurface structures of the order of magnitude of 1.multidot.10.sup.-7 to 1.multidot.10.sup.-9 have been developed for use in connection with the monitoring and study of short living structures of deformation.
SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
The invention is characterized in that it includes the additional steps of: structure having been identified as being of potential seismic danger, the D.sub.e -parameter being defined as ##EQU2## wherein e.sub.1, e.sub.2, e.sub.3, . . . , e.sub.n-1 and e.sub.n are e-values of e-isolines in the structure, delimited by isolines e.sub.1, e.sub.2, e.sub.3, . . . , e.sub.n-1 and e.sub.n respectively, ##EQU3## (f) preparing a diagram of D.sub.e vs. t and a diagram of A.sub.e.sup.m vs. t, wherein m is a positive integer, drawing a subsidiary curve through the top points of the peaks of the latter diagram and using the two resulting diagrams in combination as a basis for predicting the time of a possible future seismic event.
The method of the invention has provided a possibility of predicting the time, magnitude and position of a future possible seismic event. In particular, it is very valuable to be able to predict strong and catastrophic seismic events, i.e., seismic events having a Magnitude, M, of 4,5 or higher.
The invention is based on the discovery that by monitoring a HGD-field over vast regions it is possible to assess the state and development of short living structures of deformation and to forecast future seismic events.
Thus, during the period preceding a seismic event, the size of the short living structures of deformation and the intensity of tension within said structures are increasing, thereby forming well-defined bodies within future epicentral zones.
The invention is further based on the discovery that both a D.sub.e -curve and an A.sub.e.sup.m -curve for a given short living structure of deformation has a characteristic course during a build-up within the structure of tension leading to a strong and catastrophic seismic
REFERENCES:
patent: 4727488 (1988-02-01), Flinchbaugh
patent: 4884030 (1989-11-01), Naville et al.
patent: 4904943 (1990-02-01), Takahashi
Derwent's abstract, No. C7600 E/10, week 8210, Abstract of SU-A-834649 (AS adz Seismology) 10 Jun. 1981, entitled "Earthquake Seismic Prediction . . . Anomalies in Deformation Rate and Direction Found".
Derwent's abstract, No. 92-022657/03, week 9203, Abstract of SU-A-1628026 (AS UZB Seismology), 15 Feb., 1991, entitled "Method of Long Time Forecasting of Severe Earthquakes . . . ".
All-Russian Research Institute for Hydrogeology and Engineering
Danmarks Geologiske Unders.o slashed.gelse
Geoteknisk Institut
Kruger A/S
Trammell James P.
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