System and method for forecasting portfolio losses at...

Data processing: financial – business practice – management – or co – Automated electrical financial or business practice or... – Finance

Reexamination Certificate

Rate now

  [ 0.00 ] – not rated yet Voters 0   Comments 0

Details

C705S038000

Reexamination Certificate

active

07870052

ABSTRACT:
A computer system, which may comprise a processor, a memory and a database, may implement a loss surface determining software module that forecasts a portfolio's loss surface. Daily loss histories may be collected from actual data or may be generated using a factor model. A model may generate a sequence of iid high frequency loss innovations that can be temporally aggregated with a Fourier transform. For each portfolio, the loss surface may be forecasted and 95% and 99% value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts may be derived for various time horizons.

REFERENCES:
patent: 7225174 (2007-05-01), Schreckengast et al.
patent: 7698213 (2010-04-01), Lancaster
patent: 2003/0061152 (2003-03-01), De et al.
patent: 2003/0149657 (2003-08-01), Reynolds et al.
patent: 2003/0195831 (2003-10-01), Feldman
patent: 2004/0054572 (2004-03-01), Oldale et al.
patent: 2004/0225598 (2004-11-01), Goldberg et al.
patent: 2005/0209959 (2005-09-01), Tenney
patent: 2007/0043656 (2007-02-01), Lancaster
patent: 2007/0180586 (2007-08-01), Amin
patent: 2007/0244785 (2007-10-01), Williams
patent: 2008/0235222 (2008-09-01), Mojsilovic
Anonymous “Insightful Expands Operations on Wall Street; Leading Analytics Provider Facilitates Continued Growth in Financial Services” Jun. 4, 2001 Business Wire.
Anonymous “Products & services.(2005 guide to computerized trading)(Directory)” Jun. 15 , 2005 Futures (Cedar Falls, Iowa) , 34 , 8 , 44(33).
Veres, Bob “Beyond the Pyramid: Think you know the state of the art in portfolio management? New research may offer some surprises-and suggest new approaches.” Mar. 1, 2006 Financial Planning.
Albanese et al. “A New Fourier Transform Algorithm for Value-At-Risk” Mar. 4, 2004, Institute of Physics Publishing, Quantitative Finance, vol. 4 (2004) 328-338.
Goldberg et al. “Beyond Value at Risk: Forecasting Portfolio Loss at Multiple Horizons” 2008, Journal of Investment Management, vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 73-98.
Murphy, Kevin, “A Brief Introduction to Graphical Models and Bayesian Networks”, dated 1998, Webpage accessed from http://www.ai.mit.edu/˜murphyk/Bayes/bayes.html, Nov. 1, 2004.
Li, David X., “On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach”, dated Apr. 2000, Webpage accessed from http://defaultrisk.com/pp—corr—05.htm, Mar. 4, 2005.
Hull, John, and White, Alan, “The Valuation of Credit Default Swap Options”, dated Jan. 2003, Webpage accessed from http://defaultrisk.com/pp—crdrv—27.htm, Mar. 4, 2005.
“Bayes's Theorem”, dated Jun. 28, 2003, Webpage accessed from http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bayes-theorem, Sep. 22, 2003.
Garcia, Joao; Gielens, Geert; Leonard, Luc; and Van Gestel, Tony, “Pricing Baskets Using Gaussian Copula and BET Methodology: a Market Test”, dated Jun. 23, 2003, Webpage accessed from http://defaultrisk.com/pp—crdrv—35.htm, Mar. 4, 2005.
Yu, Fan, “Correlated Defaults and the Valuation of Defaultable Securities”, dated May 2004, Webpage accessed from http://www.moodyskmv.com/conf04/pdfpresentations/yu—corr—def—and—val.pdf, Feb. 24, 2005.
Giesecke, Kay and Goldberg, Lisa R., “The Market Price of Credit Risk”, dated Sep. 23, 2003, revised Sep. 23, 2004.
Giesecke, Kay, “Credit Risk Modeling and Valuation: An Introduction”, dated Oct. 24, 2004, Webpage accessed from http://defaultrisk.com/pp—model—38.htm, Mar. 4, 2005.
Malevergne, Yannick and Somette, Didier, “Testing the Gaussian Copula Hypothesis for Financial Assets Dependencies”, Webpage accessed from http://www.papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract—id=291140I, Mar. 7, 2005.
Merton, “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates”, Journal of Finance, 29:449-470 (1974).
Black et al., “Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions”, Journal of Finance, 31:351-367 (1976).
Longstaff et al., “A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt”, Journal of Finance, 50(3):789-819 (1995).
Leland, “Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants and Optimal Capital Structure”, Journal of Finance, 49(4):1213-1252 (1994).
Giesecke et al., “Forecasting Default in the Face of Uncertainty”, Journal of Derivatives, 12(1):1-15 (2004).
Eom et al., “Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis”, Review of Financial Studies, 17:499-544 (2004).
U.S. Appl. No. 11/825,718, filed Jul. 9, 2007.
U.S. Appl. No. 11/355,160, filed Feb. 14, 2006.
U.S. Appl. No. 11/581,501, filed Oct. 16, 2006.
U.S. Appl. No. 10/994,832, filed Nov. 22, 2004.
Office Action issued on Mar. 24, 2008 in U.S. Appl. No. 10/994,832.
Office Action issued on Dec. 15, 2008 in U.S. Appl. No. 10/994,832.
Bertsimas, D., Lauprete, G.J. and A. Samarov, “Shortfall as a Risk Measure: Properties, Optimization and Application.”Journal of Economic Dynamic&Control, 28, (2004), 1353-1381.
Danielsson, J., de Hann, L., Peng, L., and C. G. de Vries. “Using a Bootstrap Method to Choose the Sample Fraction in Tail Index Estimation.” Econometric Institute Report EI 2000-19/A.
Duffy, D. and J. Pan. “An Overview of Value at Risk.”The Journal of Derivatives, Spring 1997.
Fernandex, V. “Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk.”Revista de Análisis Económico. vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 57-83, 2003.
Heyde, C. C. and S. G. Kou. “On the Controversy Over Tailweight of Distributions.”Operations Research Letters32 (2004), pp. 399-408.
McNeil, A. and Frey, R., (2000). “Estimation of Tail—Related Risk Masures for Heteroscedastic Financial Times Series: an Extreme Value Approach.”Journal of Empirical Finance, 7 (3-4), pp. 371-300.
Niederhausen, H. “Scheffer Polynomials for Computing Exact Kolomogrov-Smirnov and Rényi Type Distributions.”The Annals of Statistics, vol. 9, No. 5 (1981), pp. 923-944.
Chakravart, Laha, and Roy (1967).Handbook of Methods of Applied Statistics, vol. I, John Wiley and Sons, pp. 392-394, Chapter 8.

LandOfFree

Say what you really think

Search LandOfFree.com for the USA inventors and patents. Rate them and share your experience with other people.

Rating

System and method for forecasting portfolio losses at... does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this patent.

If you have personal experience with System and method for forecasting portfolio losses at..., we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and System and method for forecasting portfolio losses at... will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

     

Profile ID: LFUS-PAI-O-2699945

  Search
All data on this website is collected from public sources. Our data reflects the most accurate information available at the time of publication.