Methods for selecting, developing and improving diagnostic...

Data processing: artificial intelligence – Neural network

Reexamination Certificate

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C706S023000, C706S045000

Reexamination Certificate

active

06556977

ABSTRACT:

The subject matter of each of the above-noted applications and provisional application is herein incorporated in its entirety by reference thereto.
MICROFICHE APPENDIX
Three computer Appendices containing computer program source code for programs described herein have been submitted in prior applications. The Computer Appendices are each incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. Appendix III is provided herewith.
Thus, a portion of the disclosure of this patent document contains material that is subject to copyright protection. The copyright owner has no objection to the facsimile reproduction by anyone of the patent document or patent disclosure, as it appears in the Patent and Trademark Office patent file or records, but otherwise reserves all copyright rights whatsoever.
FIELD OF THE INVENTION
This subject matter of the invention relates to the use of prediction technology, particularly nonlinear prediction technology, for the development of medical diagnostic aids for pregnancy-related and fertility-related conditions. In particular, training techniques operative on neural networks and other expert systems with inputs from patient historical information for the development of medical diagnostic tools and methods of diagnosis are provided.
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
Data Mining, Decision Support-Systems and Neural Networks
A number of computer decision-support systems have the ability to classify information and identify patterns in input data, and are particularly useful in evaluating data sets having large quantities of variables and complex interactions between variables. These computer decision systems which are collectively identified as “data mining” or “knowledge discovery in databases” (and herein as decision-support systems) rely on similar basic hardware components, e.g., personal computers (PCS) with a processor, internal and peripheral devices, memory devices and input/output interfaces. The distinctions between the systems arise within the software, and more fundamentally, the paradigms upon which the software is based. Paradigms that provide decision-support functions include regression methods, decision trees, discriminant analysis, pattern recognition, Bayesian decision theory, and fuzzy logic. One of the more widely used decision-support computer systems is the artificial neural network.
Artificial neural networks or “neural nets” are parallel information processing tools in which individual processing elements called neurons are arrayed in layers and furnished with a large number of interconnections between elements in successive layers. The functioning of the processing elements are modeled to approximate biologic neurons where the output of the processing element is determined by a typically non-linear transfer function. In a typical model for neural networks, the processing elements are arranged into an input layer for elements which receive inputs, an output layer containing one or more elements which generate an output, and one or more hidden layers of elements therebetween. The hidden layers provide the means by which non-linear problems may be solved. Within a processing element, the input signals to the element are weighted arithmetically according to a weight coefficient associated with each input. The resulting weighted sum is transformed by a selected non-linear transfer function, such as a sigmoid function, to produce an output, whose values range from 0 to 1, for each processing element. The learning process, called “training”, is a trial-and-error process involving a series of iterative adjustments to the processing element weights so that a particular processing element provides an output which, when combined with the outputs of other processing elements, generates a result which minimizes the resulting error between the outputs of the neural network and the desired outputs as represented in the training data. Adjustment of the element weights are triggered by error signals. Training data are described as a number of training examples in which each example contains a set of input values to be presented to the neural network and an associated set of desired output values.
A common training method is backpropagation or “backprop”, in which error signals are propagated backwards through the network. The error signal is used to determine how much any given element's weight is to be changed and the error gradient, with the goal being to converge to a global minimum of the mean squared error. The path toward convergence, i.e., the gradient descent, is taken in steps, each step being an adjustment of the input weights of the processing element. The size of each step is determined by the learning rate. The slope of the gradient descent includes flat and steep regions with valleys that act as local minima, giving the false impression that convergence has been achieved, leading to an inaccurate result.
Some variants of backprop incorporate a momentum term in which a proportion of the previous weight-change value is added to the current value. This adds momentum to the algorithm's trajectory in its gradient descent, which may prevent it from becoming “trapped” in local minima. One backpropogation method which includes a momentum term is “Quickprop”, in which the momentum rates are adaptive. The Quickprop variation is described by Fahlman (see, “Fast Learning Variations on Back-Propagation: An Empirical Study”,
Proceedings on the
1988
Connectionist Models Summer School
, Pittsburgh, 1988, D. Touretzky, et al., eds., pp.38-51, Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, Calif.; and, with Lebriere, “The Cascade-Correlation Learning Architecture”,
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems
2,(Denver, 1989), D. Touretzky, ed., pp. 524-32. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, Calif.). The Quickprop algorithm is publicly accessible, and may be downloaded via the Internet, from the Artificial Intelligence Repository maintained by the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University. In Quickprop, a dynamic momentum rate is calculated based upon the slope of the gradient. If the slope is smaller but has the same sign as the slope following the immediately preceding weight adjustment, the weight change will accelerate. The acceleration rate is determined by the magnitude of successive differences between slope values. If the current slope is in the opposite direction from the previous slope, the weight change decelerates. The Quickprop method improves convergence speed, giving the steepest possible gradient descent, helping to prevent convergence to a local minimum.
When neural networks are trained on sufficient training data, the neural network acts as an associative memory that is able to generalize to a correct solution for sets of new input data that were not part of the training data. Neural networks have been shown to be able to operate even in the absence of complete data or in the presence of noise. It has also been observed that the performance of the network on new or test data tends to be lower than the performance on training data. The difference in the performance on test data indicates the extent to which the network was able to generalize from the training data. A neural network, however, can be retrained and thus learn from the new data, improving the overall performance of the network.
Neural nets, thus, have characteristics that make them well suited for a large number of different problems, including areas involving prediction, such as medical diagnosis.
Neural Nets and Diagnosis
In diagnosing and/or treating a patient, a physician will use patient condition, symptoms, and the results of applicable medical diagnostic tests to identify the disease state or condition of the patient. The physician must carefully determine the relevance of the symptoms and test results to the particular diagnosis and use judgement based on experience and intuition in making a particular diagnosis. Medical diagnosis involves integration of information from several sources including a medical history, a physical exam and biochemical tests. Based upon

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