Method, program, and system for estimating weather risk

Data processing: measuring – calibrating – or testing – Measurement system in a specific environment – Earth science

Reexamination Certificate

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Reexamination Certificate

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10900112

ABSTRACT:
The amount of risk in weather derivatives is calculated properly by taking into account a correlation between weather observation sites and a correlation between meteorological elements. A weather prediction method by creating a weather scenario from historical weather data includes a first step of estimating parameters of a weather time-series model based on historical weather data including past plural meteorological elements, a meteorological element correlation between sites, and a correlation between meteorological elements, and a second step of converting random numbers into meteorological elements based on the estimated parameters. The second step is executed a given number of times to create a plurality of weather scenarios.

REFERENCES:
patent: 2002/0016676 (2002-02-01), Sann
patent: 2004/0064255 (2004-04-01), Egi
patent: 2001-222605 (2001-08-01), None
patent: 2003-122918 (2003-04-01), None
D.S. Wilks, Multisite generalization of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model, 1998, Journal of Hydrology, 210, pp. 178-191.
R. Caballero et al, “Multivariate Long-Memory Modeling of Daily Surface Air Temperatures and the Valuation of Weather Derivative Portfolios”, Jul. 2002, pp. 1-25.
D. Wilks, “Multisite Generalization of Daily Stochastic Precipitation Generation Model”, Journal of Hydrology 210, 1998, pp. 178-191.
C. Richardson, “Stochastic Simulation of Daily Precipitation, Temperature, and Solar Radiation”, Water Resources Research, Feb. 1981, pp. 182-190.

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