Method and system for simulating risk factors in parametric...

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Reexamination Certificate

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C705S035000

Reexamination Certificate

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09896660

ABSTRACT:
An improved method for simulating noise-varying risk factor values in a parametric simulation comprises analyzing historical data to determine the actual value of the risk factors and other attributes in the model and using this data to generate historical residual values which reproduces the historical price when used in the model with corresponding historical attribute values. The set of historical residual values is standardized and can be bootstrapped to increase the number of members in the set or vary the sets properties. Values of the historical residuals are then selected, e.g., at random, and used in place of the random noise components to produce simulated risk factor values which are used in the parametric model to simulate the evolution of the instrument price.

REFERENCES:
patent: 5819237 (1998-10-01), Garman
patent: 5930762 (1999-07-01), Masch
patent: 6058377 (2000-05-01), Traub et al.
patent: 6085175 (2000-07-01), Gugel et al.
patent: 6122623 (2000-09-01), Garman
Emanuel Derman, Iraj Kani and Joseph Z. Zou, “The Local Volatility Surface”, Quantitative Strategies Research Notes, Dec. 1995, pp. 1-28.
John Hull and Alan White, “Incorporating Volatility Updating Into The Historical Simulation Method For Value-At-Risk”, The Journal of Risk, 1998, vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 4-19.

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