Data processing: measuring – calibrating – or testing – Measurement system in a specific environment – Earth science
Patent
1997-03-05
1999-03-30
McElheny, Jr., Donald E.
Data processing: measuring, calibrating, or testing
Measurement system in a specific environment
Earth science
G06F 1900
Patent
active
058900942
DESCRIPTION:
BRIEF SUMMARY
DESCRIPTION
The invention relates to a method as set forth in the preamble of claim 1 provided for monitoring the seismic activity parameters in a region of investigation and more particularly to improve the possibilities of predicting (forecasting) earthquakes.
Hitherto it has not been possible to predict time, place (epicenter) and strength (magnitude) of an anticipated earthquake with sufficient accuracy so that corresponding safety precautions, more particularly for protection of the population concerned, can be taken. Methods known hitherto fail to exhibit the necessary reliability to justify setting off an earthquake alarm and, for example, to instigate large-scale evacuation measures.
A method by the name of SEISMOLAP (SEISMicOverLAPping) developed by the present applicant is known which permits a considerable improvement in predicting earthquakes. This method is described in the two-year report 1992/93 of the "GeoForschungszentrum Potsdam". The contents of the this publication hereby is incorporated in the instant description.
The known SEISMOLAP method comprises recording and quantifying two phenomena, namely seismic clustering and seismic inactivity.
Seismic clustering is understood to be focussing minor microquakes in time and space on the point of the later severe earthquake occurence. This phenomen is quantified by forming the so-called SEISMOLAP parameter.
This SEISMOLAP parameter (S in the following) is established as follows (see FIG. 2).
In a region being investigated, provided with a network of investigation locations or points, a table or a catalog of the microquakes having occured is compiled, listing the point in time of each quake, its location and its magnitude. By the known method each microquake is assigned a 2- to 4-dimensional body. In the simplest case this is formed by a square; when including the depth of the quake by a cube centered at the epicenter and furthermore considering the time interval (time window) in which the observation occurs, by a 4-dimensional configuration. The latter has the dimensional "km.sup.3 days", the time axis extending, however, only into the past and not into the future.
On the region being investigated a network of grid lines is formed, the intersections of which are assigned in each case a 2- to 4-dimensional body which, for instance, in the two-dimensional case is formed by a square having the same size as the squares assigned to the microquakes.
Usually, the dimensions of the 2- to 4-dimensional bodies assigned to the quakes or points of intersection are equal in size and, depending on the concrete conditions, selected more particularly according to the strength of the main quake sought for or anticipated.
The parameter S.sub.1 results from the sum of all overlappings of the 2- to 4-dimensional bodies, each of which is assigned to the quakes or point of intersection (point of investigation) in accordance with equation (1). The two-dimensional case is illustrated in FIG. 2. The locations of the quakes are symbolized by asterisks. The areas denoted black identify the overlappings, the sum of which produces the parameter S.sup.1. ##EQU1## where dij and D.sub.1 resp. is given by: ##EQU2## (X.sub.j,Y.sub.j,Z.sub.j) are the coordinates of the quake occurring at the point in time T.sub.j, whilst (X, Y, Z) are the coordinates of the point of investigation. D.sub.1-3 =DX are the dimensions of the space window and D.sub.4 =DT denotes the time window. With these parameters the "volume" of the 2- to 4-dimensional body is defined which in turn appears in equation (1) as the normalizing factor.
Thus, whilst in the original version the SEISMOLAP method merely established one measure of the spatial concentration of microquakes, in the version known last also a temporal frequency was included in establishing the SEISMOLAP parameter. For this purpose four-dimensional configurations were superimposed which apart from the three spatial coordinates also contained the time as a fourth dimension. This means practically that microquakes located far from a point invest
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GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam
McElheny Jr. Donald E.
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