Forecast decision system and method

Details Forecast decision system and method Forecast decision system and method

2007-12-04

2007-12-04

McElheny, Jr., Donald E (Department: 2857)

Data processing: measuring, calibrating, or testing

Measurement system in a specific environment

Earth science

C701S123000, C705S002000

Reexamination Certificate

active

11243726

ABSTRACT:
A system and method for making a decision of whether to carry additional fuel on an aircraft for a particular flight based on a forecast, such as for low visibility and ceiling. Preferably, observations-based probabilistic forecasts are utilized. The forecast probability of the weather at the planned aerodrome being below a prescribed minimum level is calculated using statistical regression analysis of past data. An optimal probability is estimated using cost parameters on an individual flight bases. If this forecast probability is greater than the optimal probability for a particular flight, then extra fuel is carried by that flight. This is in contrast to current practice whereby the same categorical forecast is applied to all flights. The combination of improved short-term forecasts and identification of optimal forecast probabilities minimizes the financial impact of errors and weather forecasts on airline operations thereby providing a superior financial outcome.

REFERENCES:
patent: 5459666 (1995-10-01), Casper et al.
patent: 5913917 (1999-06-01), Murphy
patent: 5928291 (1999-07-01), Jenkins et al.
patent: 2005/0021222 (2005-01-01), Minami et al.
patent: 2005/0283281 (2005-12-01), Hartmann et al.
“An Automated, Observations-Based System for Short-Term Prediction of Ceiling and Visibility”; Robert L. Vislocky and J. Michael Fritsch; Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Mar. 1997; pp. 31-43.
“An Observations-Based Statistical System for Warm-Season Hourly Probabilistic Forecasts of Low Ceiling at the San Franciso International Airport”; Joey L. Hilliker and J. Michael Fritsch, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 38, pp. 1692-1705, Dec. 1999.
“Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts”; Ross Keith; Bureau of Meteorology, and School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia; vol. 18, pp. 808-824, Oct. 2003.
“Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility Utilizing High-Density Surface Weather Observations”; Stephen M. Leyton and J. Michael Fritsch, Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Oct. 2003; pp. 891-902.
“The Impact of High-Frequency Surface Weather Observations on Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility”; Stephen M. Leyton and J. Michael Fritsch; Jan. 2004; pp. 145-156.
“The Impact of High-Frequency Surface Weather Observations of Short-term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility”; Stephen M. Leyton and J. Michael Fritsch; Submitted: Jul. 5, 2002; pp. 1-47.
“Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility Utilizing High-Density Surface Weather Observations”; Stephen M. Leyton and J. Michael Fritsch; Submitted; Jun. 11, 2002; pp. 1-45.
“Short-Term Probailistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility Utilizing High-Density and High-Frequency Surface Weather Observations” The Pennsylvania State University, The Graduate School, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences; A Thesis in Meteorology by Stephen M. Leyton; Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science, May 2002; 66 pages.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

Rating

Forecast decision system and method does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this patent.

If you have personal experience with Forecast decision system and method, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Forecast decision system and method will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFUS-PAI-O-3834130