Method for predicting seismic event using value of...

Data processing: measuring – calibrating – or testing – Measurement system in a specific environment – Earth science

Reexamination Certificate

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C367S073000

Reexamination Certificate

active

06704658

ABSTRACT:

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
1. Field of the Invention
A forecasting field of a seismic event, getting hold of a condition of an activity of the earth's crust, precaution of an accident in accordance with a seismic event, and reduction thereof.
2. Description of the Background Art
There has been a patent application using an electromagnetic method in Japan. On the contrary, there has been no method of forecasting a seismic event registered a magnitude of more than 5 and a narrow region by way of a value of magnitude indicating a seismic scale, the time of the seismic event, and the position of the seismic source, using a seismograph for measuring in a wide area.
The term “seismic source” as used herein means “seismic hypocenter” and not “epicenter.”
SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
The present invention is to find the state of being possible and the significant condition of being related between seismic events registered a magnitude of more than 5, using the value of magnitude indicating a seismic scale, the time of the seismic events, and the position of seismic sources, which have been obtained by a seismograph, and to provide a method therefor.
(1) Seismic data as fundamental data are defined as x(t), y(t), and z(t), by defining x as latitude, y as longitude, z as depth from the earth's surface by defining coordinates of positions of a seismic source as a time t. The value of magnitude of the earthquake of the same seismic event is defined as m(t).
(2) The positions of the coordinates for measured data during the time between a time t
1
and a time t
2
are defined as sx(tt
1
), sy
1
(tt
1
), and sz
1
(tt
1
) in an early order using a parameter tt
1
. The value of magnitude of the same earthquake is defined as mx
1
(tt
1
). It is considered that the parameter tt
1
is equal to the number of the seismic events for calculating after the time t
1
.
That is to say, data of the 10-th seismic event from the time t
1
are sx
1
(
10
), sy
1
(
10
), sz
1
(
10
), and mx
1
(
10
). They are fundamental data, thus it is recommended to store in a computer readable recording medium in a time series order. At this stage, for calculating, the range of time, the scope of space, and the scope of magnitude of the earthquake are not designated.
(3) The scope of magnitude of the earthquake, the scope of space coordinates, and the range of time of the measured data are designated. The range of time is indicated as the range from t
3
to t
4
. The case in which a time t
4
is the newest data in view of time among obtained data is included. The total number of the seismic events satisfying this condition is defined as nn. It is defined that xe, ye, and ze of the seismic events satisfying this condition are latitude, longitude, and depth from the earth respectively, and they are defined as xe(tt
2
), ye(tt
2
), and ze(tt
2
) respectively. The value of magnitude of the earthquake of the same event is defined as me
1
(tt
2
). A parameter tt
2
is the number of the seismic event as a target in an early order. Therefore, it is performed to calculate based on these values. For the scope of magnitude of the earthquake, though it is enough regularly to provide the lower limit, it may also be possible to provide the upper limit if there are wrong data (there is a magnitude of 9.9) or if a specific purpose is planned.
(4) For x, y, and z (3 dimensional coordinates of the seismic source), it is common that raw data are indicated by latitude and longitude in accordance with the 3 dimensional space coordinates of the paragraph (3), thus it is performed to transform in order to make into the same unit (kilometer is used in general as the unit).
(5) The basic points (which are indicated by points) to be set first of all about xe(tt
2
), ye(tt
2
), and ze(tt
2
) are defined as xe(
0
), ye(
0
), and ze(
0
). The value of tt
2
varies from 1 to nn.
It is performed to calculate ss
0
(tt
2
){circumflex over ( )}2=((xe(tt
2
)−xe(tt
2
−1)){circumflex over ( )}2)pa+((ye(tt
2
)−ye(tt
2
))−ye(tt
2
−1)){circumflex over ( )}2)pb+(ze(tt
2
)−ze(tt
2
−1)){circumflex over ( )}2. Symbols pa and pb are coefficients in order to adjust to a unit of ze(tt
2
).
In general, since depth indicated by ze(tt
2
) is indicated by kilometer, it is unified by making into a common length unit. “{circumflex over ( )}” is an operational symbol for indicating a power.
It is defined that ss
0
(tt
2
) is the value of a plus value of the square root of ((xe(tt
2
)−xe(tt
2
−1)){circumflex over ( )}2)pa+((ye(tt
2
)−ye(tt
2
−1)){circumflex over ( )}2)pb+(ze(tt
2
)−ze(tt
2
−1)){circumflex over ( )}2.
(6) If the number of the seismic events for the period is defined as 5 in a uniform manner, the total number of periods come to be more than (nn/5). However, it is desirable to round up in the case in which fractions are found or produced. Accordingly, it is not performed to exclude data of fractions. The total number of periods which are defined in this way is defined as n
2
. The indication of the number for the period, in accordance with this period, is defined as I.
(7) If the number of the seismic events used for one period is defined as f, ss
1
(I)=[sigma] ss
0
(tt
2
)/f is defined ([sigma] indicates the total number which varies from I=1 to the last period number n. This is not the total number n
2
for the period) [sigma] is an operator for indicating the total number which varies from I=1 to the last period number n. In general, the meaning thereof is the same as a capital letter sigma of a Greek letter used in mathematics.
In other words, in the case in which it is performed to divide at the first diving point from the first period per f partitions without causing fractions, ss
1
(
1
)=(ss
0
(
1
)+ss
0
(
2
)+ . . . +ss
0
(f))/f and ss
1
(
2
)=(ss
0
(f+1)+ss
0
(f+2)+ . . . +ss
0
(f+f))/f are obtained. Though the parameter f varies from 1 to n
2
, if the value of f is too large, the results will have intervals. If the value of f is too small, we cannot help having the results as that we cannot see the wood for the trees. For the first ss
0
(
1
), the distance from a spatial base which has been set in the first place is calculated. This calculated result is defined as ss
0
(
1
). However, even if they are calculated in the same way, for xe(
1
), ye(
1
), ze(
1
), and me
1
(
1
) (the first data), by setting these as spatial bases and by excluding me
1
(
1
) from the target of calculating its energy, the essential qualities of its calculation are not affected (however, immediately thereafter, its calculation is affected, especially, in the case in which the number of data is small).
(8) A calculating method in relation to getting hold of a space of the seismic source different from the paragraphs (5), (6), and (7), by obtaining the relative distance from its base based on the spatial base to data (xe(tt
2
), ye(tt
2
), ze(tt
2
)) as the target for calculation, is the method of setting a base for calculating per the partitioning unit indicated in the paragraph (6), based on the values thereof. In another way, the method thereof is to make the shortest distance or the vertical distance from a line and a face to be a base for its calculation. There is a difference between the line and the face: the line to be the base is a line which is indicated as an active fault in a geological figure; and the face is analyzed in relation to a spatial distribution based on the distance from a geophysical base and the face of the active fault.
The advantageous point thereof is to easily find out a blind spot in the case of using ss
1
(I) if xe(tt
2
), ye(tt
2
), and ze(tt
2
) which have been used in the paragraph (5) are used. In the case in which the spatial base is the line or the face, an expression for indicating the line and the space is created by setting latitude, longitude, and depth as the 3 dimensional coordinate bases, and then the distance from

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